News from CMAP

EMBARGOED UNTIL NOON CENTRAL TIME, JULY 9, 2008
Press Contact: Tom Garritano (312-386-8609)

Northeastern Illinois water demand could increase up to
64 percent through 2050, prompting shortages

Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) leads long-range
study to help head off potential water shortfalls in 11 counties

CHICAGO, July 9, 2008 -- Depending on whether the region plans effectively, demand for water in 11 counties of northeastern Illinois could increase as much as 64 percent by mid-century, creating potentially serious shortages. So says a new report commissioned by the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) and funded by the Illinois Department of Natural Resources (IDNR).

The report is a product of CMAP's work with its Regional Water Supply Planning Group (RWSPG), which is preparing a strategic plan for avoiding problems that have plagued other parts of the U.S. The research was conducted by the Southern Illinois University department of geography and environmental resources. Click here to download the document.

"With this report, northeastern Illinois now has a clear picture showing implications of our water consumption trends," said CMAP executive director Randy Blankenhorn. "To ensure an adequate supply for residential, commercial, and recreational needs, we must start now to plan better -- and conserve more. This water demand report is one important step toward a coordinated regional strategy for managing growth to help minimize water shortages in the future."

The water demand report will influence the 11-county water supply plan that CMAP and the RWSPG are scheduled to complete in mid-2009. That three-year regional study is meant to anticipate and address potential water shortages in Boone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, Lake, McHenry, and Will counties.

Researchers generated three distinct future scenarios by major user sectors and geographical subareas within the region. The first, referred to as the CT scenario (for "current trends"), assumes that today's water withdrawal patterns will basically continue. The second is a less resource intensive (LRI) scenario, and the third is more resource intensive (MRI).

Each scenario looks to 2050 based on potential usage in homes, businesses, power plants, and farms. Variables include air temperature, precipitation, price of water, household income, population density, employment, and conservation trends.

Under the MRI scenario, demand would increase by 64.1 percent, for a total of 2.4 billion gallons per day (an increase of 949 million gallons compared to the 2005 baseline level of 1.5 billion gallons per day). The CT scenario shows a 35.8-percent increase, with daily demand rising by 530 million gallons. If strong conservation measures succeed at reducing consumption, the LRI scenario would see a 7.2-percent increase, only 107.2 million gallons more per day than in 2005.

Water use would increase to 201 gallons per capita each day under the MRI scenario, compared to 169 gallons per capita daily in 2005. Per capita usage under the CT scenario would drop slightly to 166 gallons. Under the LRI scenario, effective conservation measures would reduce daily usage to 131 gallons per day -- nearly 23 percent less than in 2005.

"The MRI scenario could be viewed as a warning," the report states, "that there is a possibility of a large increase of water demands in the future." According to the report, demand could increase significantly due to factors such as inadequate conservation, the rate and location of population growth, commercial use, and climate change.

Monitoring water use is key to managing demand, according to the report. It recommends that the region maintain a "water inventory," which would be updated at least annually based on data reflecting potential changes in water withdrawal and use. Appropriate pricing of water is also a necessary condition of achieving efficient water use, the report states.

Sponsored by IDNR at $1.14 million, the regional study is among programs whose funding is in jeopardy due to the State of Illinois budget shortfall. The Governor has called a special session of the General Assembly to close a $2 billion gap in the FY 2009 budget.

"To prematurely end this effort would be a significant setback for the region," Blankenhorn said. "The initial three-year study should be just the beginning of better regional cooperation to ensure adequate water supplies. By not completing this job, the State of Illinois would be inviting serious water shortages that could harm our region's economy and quality of life."

According to CMAP socio-economic forecasts, the seven counties of metropolitan Chicago will add 2.8 million residents and 1.8 million jobs by 2040.

In January 2006, Governor Blagojevich issued Executive Order 2006-1, calling for a comprehensive program for state and regional water supply planning and management. Later that year, IDNR funded CMAP to create the RWSPG, which began to meet monthly in early 2007. The group has members from stakeholder groups such as municipalities, counties, water suppliers, agriculture, business, power companies, environmental and conservation advocates, and real estate developers, among others.

The Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS) will now work with CMAP to match the water demand scenarios with data on water supply. To be issued in late 2008, the result will be scenarios describing water availability to 2050. Then the RWSPG's regional plan will follow in mid-2009, with specific strategies for reducing per capita demand to manage water supplies.

The northeastern Illinois water supply plan is also an important part of CMAP's GO TO 2040 planning campaign. GO TO 2040 will yield metropolitan Chicago's first truly comprehensive regional plan, which will be issued in 2010 to guide development and infrastructure investments through the next 30 years and beyond.

--END--