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In response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, Congress has enacted four bills: the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, and the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, Economic Security Act (CARES Act), and the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act. Together, these bills focus primarily on responding to the pandemic, providing immediate relief to those impacted by mandatory and voluntary closures. This assistance takes several forms including:

• Provide emergency funding and flexibility to federal agencies to respond to the pandemic.

• Provide financial assistance for businesses, industries, and hospitals, as well as make provisions for the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve to stabilize bond and money markets.

• Assist state and local governments in meeting the unbudgeted health and public safety costs of responding to the outbreak.

• Providing assistance to transit systems and other transportation providers.

CMAP is closely following how the federal and state governments will be implementing some of these programs. Staff have begun compiling information on what these programs are and how they will be implemented. In many cases, the rollout is still underway and individuals, businesses, and communities have not yet received relief. Find the latest version of CMAP’s interpretation of the legislation’s programs, which is meant to be used by local governments for informational purposes.

Since the start of the COVID response and Illinois’ stay-at-home order, transit and transportation use has changed significantly. While there is a lot of speculation about what is happening, we would like to share with you the latest information we’ve learned about the region’s transit and transportation systems during the pandemic. This includes data and analysis of movement on our roads, safety, transit ridership, and freight rail network.

Roadways

Illinois roads have experienced lower traffic because of COVID-19, although a significant rebound has happened since the pandemic began in March. The decrease in traffic also has been more pronounced for passenger travel than for trucks, reflecting the continued need to ship goods. But the decline depends on the type of road and measure. 

During the first two weeks of Illinois’ stay-at-home order in March, average passenger traffic on Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) arterials and expressways declined by almost one-half percent. Travel by single-unit trucks, which typically serve a more local travel market, initially decreased somewhat more than heavy trucks. But since late March, single-unit truck traffic has recovered steadily with volume now about 15 percentage points higher than its pre-COVID level.

After running approximately 10 percent lower than pre-crisis levels for most of the time since March, heavy truck (multiunit) traffic now has returned slightly above pre-crisis levels. A similar decrease and rebound trend have happened with traffic on the Illinois Tollway. Passenger traffic stabilized around 10 percent below pre-COVID levels but has declined slightly since the summer. In typical years, traffic declines during the fall from its peak in the summer.

Despite increasing traffic volumes, expressway speeds remain significantly higher than before Illinois’ stay-at-home order. This change is most apparent on IDOT expressways, which typically are more congested, and it’s less noticeable on the Illinois Tollway. Slowdowns still may happen in spots because of crashes or other incidents; however, traditional morning and afternoon travel peaks slowly are returning. By contrast, speeds remained steady during the morning rush period in late spring and summer and declined during the afternoon peak.

Trips and travelers

Trip-making patterns also have changed markedly, based on an analysis of an extensive data tool from IDOT that includes information collected from cell phones. The number of weekday trips taken by any mode of travel decreased by approximately 40 percent in April and May compared to February. But the number has rebounded significantly since then. The average distance of trips also decreased — down to 4.6 miles in April from February’s average of 5.9 miles. The decrease in trip length likely was because of fewer commuters on the road, as some employees began to work from home. Many others were furloughed or let go. In general, more of the region’s residents stayed close to their homes during the shutdown. The share of trips under 2.5 miles went from 43 percent in March to almost 60 percent in May.

While all of these measures now have returned closer to pre-COVID conditions, they have not bounced back entirely. In fact, since August, average trip distance has declined slightly (from 5.34 to 5.19 miles), as has the number of weekday trips. The share of trips under 2.5 miles also grew slightly from 49 percent to 51 percent.

Unlike the typical morning and afternoon peak pattern, trips in the first few months following Illinois’ stay-at-home order only peaked in the afternoon. More recently, trips have begun showing a peak in the morning. Trips that begin during the daytime decreased significantly, but the number of trips taken between 11:00 p.m. and 4:00 a.m. remained almost unchanged. Many job categories considered essential, such as health care, food manufacturing, and transportation, rely on shift workers. The steady number of overnight trips likely reflects an identifying characteristic of essential workers — the late-night commute.

A previous CMAP analysis looked at 12 broad occupations classified as essential work in northeastern Illinois and found essential workers disproportionately live in low-income communities with high concentrations of people of color. Trip data mirrors these findings. The number of trips starting in census tracts where the median household income is 30 percent below that of the region has not declined as much as higher-income tracts. These trends reflect the options many residents with higher incomes had during Illinois’ stay-at-home order, from being able to work from home to being able to shop online for supplies. As travel rebounds, the gap in travel between income groups has shrunk somewhat but has not fully reverted to pre-crisis conditions.

Safety

Besides reducing congestion, cutbacks in travel during the COVID-19 pandemic also has lowered injuries from crashes. In Chicago, the number of serious traffic injuries from the first week of March to the end of October didn’t grow as fast as it has the two preceding years. Conditions have improved for car occupants as well as bicyclists and pedestrians. In fact, the reduction in serious injuries in Chicago has been more pronounced for bicyclists and pedestrians.

Traffic-related fatalities, yet, have not decreased. For the entire state, fatalities through the end of October were higher than they were in 2018 and 2019. For Chicago, fatalities were up about one-quarter relative to 2018 at the end of October and up more than a half relative to 2019. The risk of dying in a car crash increased significantly over the spring and summer, with drivers overall traveling less but travel speeds increasing with fewer vehicles on the road. Injuries this year simply appear to be more serious, which may be the result of increased speeding, among other factors. Fatalities have a greater degree of randomness than serious injuries as a whole, which may account for some of the difference in trends.

Transit

Transit use has declined to an even greater degree than passenger car traffic as social distancing continues. Transit ridership had declined by more than 80 percent across the Regional Transportation Authority (RTA) system by the end of April. Since then, ridership has slowly recovered to just shy of 70 percent. The largest decline (97 percent) was for Metra, a transit agency with a customer base dominated by downtown commuters who largely have shifted to working remotely during the pandemic. In general, transit agencies have increased cleaning of vehicles and stations, and implemented a number of safety measures to encourage the use of face coverings and social distancing, as well as rear-door boarding on buses. While the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) kept its overall service levels, Metra and Pace made several service adjustments in response to ridership changes. After Illinois entered Phase 4 of its COVID-19 recovery plan in late June, Metra also restored some service.

Freight rail

Freight-rail activity has declined somewhat, but as with trucking, shipments of goods has continued. The number of rail cars en route to Chicago was down 22 percent from the first week of March to the second week of April. Rail cars processed in the Chicago terminal also were down 22 percent over the same period. Volumes remained low through May but experienced a large rebound during June — a trend that continued through the summer. Despite the decrease in volume, freight-rail transit times throughout the Chicago region remained relatively steady through May. As volumes began increasing in June, these transit times spiked higher than before the pandemic. Transit time also has remained elevated into November.

The statewide order to limit travel and the pandemic’s resulting economic impacts has reduced vehicle travel as well as other activities that generate transportation user fee revenue. Lower than anticipated revenues will affect transportation investments and operations by IDOT, counties, townships, municipalities, and transit agencies. However, even with any declines in revenue, overall 2020 revenues will likely be higher than 2019 due to the various rate increases enacted as part of Rebuild Illinois, including raising the state motor fuel tax to 38 cents per gallon from 19 cents per gallon.

In particular, state motor fuel tax revenues have been impacted by reduced vehicle travel. Reductions in gallons sold will be partially mitigated by the annual inflationary rate increase. On July 1, 2020, the rate is set to increase from 38.0 to 38.7 cents based on the rate of inflation.

Staff looked at two different scenarios for motor fuel tax revenues for 2020:

• In the first scenario, the state would experience significant reductions in vehicle miles traveled for five months of 2020, resulting in 15 percent lower passenger vehicle miles traveled and 13 percent lower overall MFT revenues than forecast.

• In the second scenario, the state would experience significant reductions for three-quarters of 2020, pushing passenger VMT to drop by 25 percent and MFT to drop by 21 percent relative to CMAP’s forecast.

In all likelihood, actual revenues will fall somewhere in between these two scenarios. Thus, MFT revenues accruing to state, local, and transit agencies in the region may be between 12 and 20 percent less than what was previously forecast.

State motor fuel tax revenue baseline forecast compared to scenarios with pandemic impacts, 2020

Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning analysis 

The COVID-19 pandemic presents unprecedented challenges to our nation and world. CMAP understands that the true impact of this situation is beyond the information we have today. As data becomes available, CMAP will continue to provide analysis and reflection.