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Population Forecast

The Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning 2040 Forecast of Population, Households and Employment was developed in support of the GO TO 2040 comprehensive regional plan adopted on October 13, 2010. The primary function of these data is to serve as an input for CMAP transportation modeling activities, which are an important component in air quality conformity evaluations of the region's Transportation Improvement Program (TIP).

This forecast was developed through the creation of a "reference scenario" based on current population and land use trends. Mathematical modeling techniques were then employed to evaluate how the distribution of population and employment would change in response to different planning strategies which might increase or dampen the amount of socioeconomic activity within a given area. The data in this forecast reflect the CMAP Preferred Regional Scenario, which was developed in part through a series of Invent the Future workshops held throughout the region between May and September 2009. Users of these forecasts should adhere to CMAP's Forecasting Principles when preparing analyses related to GO TO 2040 implementation.

The table below summarizes the expected outcomes of the GO TO 2040 Preferred Scenario in comparison to current (2010, estimated) conditions. These data are used for a variety of regional land use and transportation planning efforts. A more detailed description of the development of the forecast can be found in Socioeconomic Inventory Validation and Forecasting Method (link below).


Click on table to open larger version in separate window.

Associated Files to Download

Excel spreadsheet (151 Kb) containing 2040 forecast summaries of population, households and employment by county, township and municipality. Includes 2010 estimates (pre-Census) used as the base for the forecast, as well as 2010 subzone-aggregated Census totals. NOTE: The 2010 estimates used as the base for the 2040 forecast were internally-derived and not based on 2010 Census data, which were not available during the GO TO 2040 process. Estimation methodology is covered in the Socioeconomic Inventory Validation and Forecasting Method document (below).

Note that the 2010 data presented in the above spreadsheet are subzone-level aggregations, and not direct Census figures. Selected 2010 Census SF1 results for CMAP Counties, County Subdivisions (Townships), and Places can be found here (Excel, 265 Kb).

The PDF maps below provide a graphic depiction of what CMAP subzones were "assigned" to which municipalities and townships for the creation of municipal/township forecast totals. Please be aware that these subzone aggregations were created for tabulation purposes only, and are not intended to suggest or predict the future extent of any community.

Municipal subzone assignment map (PDF, 8 MB)

Township subzone assignment map (PDF, 6 MB)

The GIS shapefile (2 MB) is a zipped shapefile of the CMAP subzones with 2010 (forecast base estimate) and 2040 (forecast) data; this newer (September 2012) version also includes more current 2010 population and employment data based on the 2010 Census and updated CMAP employment estimates. Subzone-level forecast data are the result of modeling procedures which mathematically express policies reflected in the GO TO 2040 Preferred Scenario; as such, they cannot be considered precise at any specific (subzone) location. These data are only appropriate for planning purposes when aggregated to larger areas.

Socioeconomic Validation and Forecasting Method: this document serves as a primer on the methods used to develop datasets representing population and employment for long range plan strategy analyses and preferred scenario modeling.

MS Word version (10 MB) with embedded Excel spreadsheets allowing the user to view the data behind the document's tables and charts. This document was created using Microsoft Word 2010, and is incompatible with earlier versions.

PDF version (2.5 MB), no embedded data.

If you have questions regarding any of these documents, please contact us at info@cmap.illinois.gov.

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